When the H5N1 strain of avian influenza was first identified in 1996, history could not dictate the path it was going to take. Highly contagious avian diseases had tended to spread like wildfire within the confines of isolated poultry operations but would burn out quickly in nature because the deaths of wild hosts inhibited spread between dispersed animal populations. But H5N1 is different.
As industrial agriculture and intensive livestock holdings have fanned across the world, it is apparent that disease contagion is fanning out alongside it. Maybe this isn’t entirely surprising given the multitude of other dangerous externalities that have emerged as byproducts of the industrial era: energy consumption and atmospheric recomposition leading to climate change; mass production of plastics and the clogging of waterways, whale guts and microplastic in human tissue; air coolants and a hole in the ozone layer; urban sprawl, resource extraction, crop monocultures and biodiversity collapse.
In 1996, H5N1 struck geese farms in China and a huge number of birds were lost and that may have been the end of it. But then it struck Hong Kong. And South Korea. And Southeast Asia. And Japan. And then it struck everywhere all at once. H5N1’s body count reads like an animal apocalypse: over 300 million birds from every continent on Earth, tens of thousands of mammals including seals and dolphins, and about 500 humans struck dead. Migratory birds have spread the virus the world over but what’s astonishing about H5N1 is how it has gained strength over time, with its death rate and range of infected species becoming progressively worse.
Bioterrorism
When H5N1 collides with a poultry farm it’s like a missile. It infects thousands of hosts at a shot, combining and re-assorting itself in each animal body before rapidly moving to the next. These are tightly packed environments devoid of fresh air, clean water and faecal-free space—the most perfect accelerant imaginable for a rapidly mutating influenza. Thanks to the paucity of poultry operations along migration routes, the virus has continued to cycle between poultry and wild birds unabated for almost thirty years now. Wild birds pick up the bird flu from a poultry farm and, whether they survive or die, spread it to the next poultry farm along the migration route, creating a whole new strain of H5N1 to which there are no defences. And just like that, a self-perpetuating death spiral provoking the slaughter of millions of farmed animals and mass die-offs in the wild has been unleashed.
The havoc wreaked by H5N1 over the past three decades has made this pathogen the pioneering subject of controversial gain-of-function viral research. When questions were volleyed over the bio-terrorist potential that these new technologies raised, Anthony Fauci, former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Diseases, replied: “Nature is the real terrorist.” Absurd, yes—we will all succumb to our biology at some point. But has nature not given birth to all things living and sustained it with purified air, filtered sunlight and an abundance of glorious freshwater and botanicals that heal? Further, is it not human industry that is degrading the life-giving functions of the biosphere—polluting our atmosphere, contaminating our oceans—even summoning an unstoppable serial killing virus from the feathery cages of battery hens?
H5N1 could not exist absent the viral reservoir provided by billions of human-farmed poultry living in putrid conditions. Although industrial activity has birthed this virus, commerce has taken an economic hit as a result. It is this threat to industry that governments have their eye on, with Vox reporting that the US Department of Agriculture “is primarily focused of protecting the poultry industry,” staring past the unfolding catastrophe in wildlife conservation and pursuant risk of another human pandemic. The latter is a very real possibility, especially in light of studies revealing that the devastating pandemic of 1918 likely sprang from an avian strain of influenza.
Crisis Capital
And so, H5N1 is yet another capitalist crisis whereby private actors create an existential threat that the state must contain while simultaneously sheltering the problem-causing industry. It is overwhelmingly workers that have lost their lives to H5N1, and rank-and-file consumers and taxpayers will foot the bill for additional costs imposed on the industry. Because of this, it is unlikely that holistic approaches and reforms to Big Poultry that researchers have called for will actually come to pass.
Karl Marx, regarding the transition from the feudal to capitalist mode of production, described the changes that capitalism brought to livestock rearing in England. As food became commodified and profit-oriented, so did stable feeding become dominant:
In these prisons animals are born and remain there until they are killed off. The question is whether or not this system connected to the breeding that grows animals in an abnormal way by aborting bones in order to transform them to mere meat and a bulk of fat—whereas [before commodification] these animals remained active by staying under free air as much as possible—will ultimately result in serious deterioration of life force?1
If there is a correlation between the vectors of H5N1, ocean acidification, addiction and mental health crises, plastic waste and contamination, surging global slums, an unaffordable cost of living and even right-wing populism, then it is the entire capitalist modality that needs a rethink instead of choice industries. We have the technology and resources to implement programs of regenerative farming, resilient landscapes, wildlife conservation, sustainable cities and even a cleanse of air and oceans. But such practices simply cannot operate on a for-profit basis despite the desirability of their outcomes.
The timeline presented here gives a snapshot of H5N1 as it has moved through the media landscape since first coming onto the collective radar. Even though almost 8,000 academic articles have been published on this topic, it has only penetrated the mainstream swayingly, oscillating from intense interest when human beings and cute baby seals are effected, and near-oblivion in years when it is seemingly contained to the fetid poultry site. By giving this invisible pathogen contours in our imaginations, we can hopefully better contextualize this virus as individuals and bring light to the correct places with our torches.
Timeline of H5N1
1996
- Contagion breaks out on goose farms in mainland China kill 40% of infected birds. The pathogen is discovered to be a highly contagious influenza virus and is categorized as “H5N1.”
1997
- A “mysterious ‘bird flu’ virus” erupts among poultry farms and markets in Hong Kong, causing mass die-offs of livestock. H5N1 is determined to be the culprit. Authorities order every chicken in Hong Kong slaughtered over a two day period, plus any ducks, geese, quail or pigeons held within proximity. Workers from Hong Kong’s chicken farms and market stalls are tested for H5N1. 18 total infections were discovered resulting in six deaths.
2001
- H5N1 reappears in Hong Kong, killing 800 chickens within 24 hours and forcing closed poultry markets with further culls of thousands of birds.
2002
- Four ducks and a swan found dead in a Hong Kong pond. Tissue samples confirm presence of H5N1.
2003
- Two members of a Hong Kong family test positive for the virus. One dead.
- Two tigers and a pair of leopards in a Thailand zoo found dead after feeding on chicken carcasses. Tests confirm presence of H5N1 in tissue samples. A further 147 tigers go on to die of influenza or culling.
- South Korea detects avian influenza on multiple poultry farms across the country, resulting in a cull of one million chickens and ducks.
2004
- H5N1 reappears in Hong Kong, killing 800 chickens within 24 hours and forcing closed poultry markets with further culls of thousands of birds.
- Japan, China, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia report outbreaks of H5N1 among poultry, evidence that the disease spread along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. The flyway, stretching from New Zealand to eastern Siberia, is utilized by millions of wild birds belonging to 600 different species.
- The culling of two million chickens in Vietnam prompts KFC to pull chicken from their menu in favour of fish.
- 22 people confirmed dead in Vietnam from H5N1 and 12 in Thailand. At this point in time, up to 70% of people known to have contracted avian flu have died as a result.
2005
- Over 6,000 wild birds infected with avian flu are found dead at China’s Qinghai Lake.
- Avian flu outbreaks in Siberian poultry coincide with discovery of nearby dead migratory birds. Kazakhstan reports outbreak among chickens and Mongolia discovers 89 dead birds positive with H5N1 at two lakes.
- Nigeria and Egypt report poultry outbreaks while Finland finds H5N1 in seagulls. Later, Croatia confirms presence of H5N1 in wild birds and Romania and Turkey report outbreaks in poultry.
- EU leaders hold emergency talks in Luxembourg to discuss possible responses by member nations. In the U.S., President Bush recommends $7.1 billion be spent in tracking avian influenza, experimental vaccine development and stocking anti-virals.
- Tamiflu supply is squeezed as production does not ramp up to meet new demand for the anti-viral drug. The pharmaceutical giant Roche projects a windfall of profit as a result: $875 million extra for the year, on account of avian flu concerns.
- Hackers capitalize on bird flu fears, circulating emails that promise valuable bird flu information and gaining remote control over any computer that opens them.
- Researchers discover an H5N1 strain that is resistant to Tamiflu. David Nabarro, senior health expert with the World Health Organization, predicts a human pandemic stemming from avian flu could kill 150 million people.
2006
- H5N1 confirmed in 60 countries from East Asia through the Middle East, Africa and Europe.
- Multiple human fatalities occur in North Africa and the Middle East and 25 die of bird flu in Indonesia. Virus appears to mainly spread from bird-to-human and shows limited capability of human-to-human infection.
- Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health tells the Associated Press: “Hopefully the epidemic [in birds] burns itself out, which epidemics do, before the virus evolves the capability of…going from human to human.”
- Bird flu flare-up on a chicken farm in South Korea leads to a cull of 236,000 poultry, in addition to all pigs, cats and dogs within a 1,650 foot radius of the infection site.
2007
- Number of human infections dwindles. The New York Times notes that as “the illness receded, the scary headlines—with warnings of a pandemic that could kill 150 million people—all but vanished.”
- Despite fading interest, the Center for Infectious Disease Research reports the view of scientists and epidemiologists: so long as H5N1 circulates among wild birds, the risk to humans and poultry stocks remain the same.
2009
2010
- A Hong Kong couple contracts avian influenza while travelling in mainland China, resulting in one hospitalization. Source of infection unknown as they had no contact with farmed birds.
2011
- 62 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed: 39 in Egypt, 12 in Indonesia, eight in Cambodia, two in Bangladesh and one in China. 34 deaths result.
2012
- Some of the earliest ever gain-of-function research is revealed to be taking place in laboratories from North America, Europe and Asia, as scientists aim to create H5N1 strains that are highly pathogenic to people in order to better understand the potential risks. Concerns over bioterrorism and lab leaks prompt moratoriums on this type of research and academic papers to be censored.
- Scientists agree as little as five mutations to existing H5N1 strains could yield a catastrophic contagion among people.
2014
- A 20 year old health care worker contracts H5N1 while travelling Beijing and dies in Red Deer, Alberta. North America’s first recorded fatality. Source of infection unknown.
- World Health Organizations continues to monitor outbreaks within poultry farms and dozens of people across Africa and Asia.
2015
- 100 migratory birds, including swans and pochards, found dead at a reservoir in China.
2016
- India, battling H5N1 on poultry farms for two years, declares itself bird flu free in September. One month later, multiple waterfowl are found dead of H5N1 at a Delhi zoo.
- Bangladesh, France, Niger and Nigeria report H5N1 outbreaks on farms.
- H5N1 strains resistant to antivirals emerge in Egypt.
2017
- Malaysia experiences severe H5N1 outbreak, resulting in a cull of 30,000 chickens as China bans Malaysian poultry products and a state of emergency is declared in the state of Kelantan.
2019
- The digital public health publication STAT noted no new human fatalities of H5N1 in over two years. A related strain which emerged in 2014, H5N6, has killed approximately six out of 12 people infected since its detection.
2020
- Amid a raging COVID-19 pandemic, China culls 18,000 chickens in Hunan province after 4,500 chickens are found dead on a farm due to H5N1.
- Within a two week span, poultry farms in the Netherlands, Britain, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Croatia and Ukraine are hit with H5N1.
2021
- An outbreak of H5N1 is reported on a poultry farm in Senegal. Later, rangers discover 750 dead pelicans positive with the strain at a wild bird sanctuary.
2022
- 8,000 Sandwich terns found dead at a breeding colony in the Netherlands.
- British shorelines “smell of death” as hundreds of thousands of seabird corpses wash up dead after mating season, part of an H5N1 outbreak affecting the entire continent of Europe. Researchers estimate a death rate of 50–100% among wild birds which become infected with H5N1, depending on the species.
- 13,000 seabirds in Peru turn up dead on beaches, mostly pelicans. H5N1 detected.
- Deaths spike among wild birds in Canada, as outbreaks erupt in 200 commercial flocks across the country.
- H5N1 spreads rapidly across multiple detection sites in the continental United States, infecting one prison labourer who was involved with culling an infected flock in Colorado. Between culls and disease, over 50 million American domestic birds are killed.
- 330 seals along the Quebec and Maine coast are killed by H5N1, raising the spectre of the virus among mammals. Wild red foxes and farmed mink have also been infected, in addition to zoo mammals that were fed infected chickens.
- Conspiracy theories abound online, blaming Bill Gates and the CDC for releasing the deadly pathogen.
- Globally, 77 million birds are culled in an attempt to contain the H5N1 pathogen.
2023
- Based on all available information, Biosecurity specialist Juan Cambeiro reports that the likelihood of a human H5N1 pandemic breaking out in any given year is 4%. There is an 80% chance it would be worse than COVID in terms of fatalities.
- Mass die-offs of gulls reported across Europe. Although wildlife detections are difficult measurements, by 2023 researchers estimate millions of wild birds have died due to the virus on a magnitude never before seen.
- Eight dead skunks around Vancouver test positive for H5N1.
- In Poland, 29 dead house cats tested positive for the virus of which 18 were indoor pets. Source of exposure unknown.
- 485,000 animals, including mink and foxes, are culled in Finland after outbreaks on fur farms.
- In a Canadian lab, predominant bird flu strain was found to “efficiently” spread between ferrets.
- The number of known wild bird deaths from influenza in Peru swells to 63,000. Meanwhile, between January and October, a staggering 24,000 South American sea lions are found dead, suggesting mammal-to-mammal transmission.
- Virus detected amongst migratory birds in Antarctica, the last continent to fall to contagion.
- To date, 853 human cases of H5N1 have been reported with 53% of them fatal.
2024
- Avian influenza detected in dead Alaskan polar bear to start the year. 48 different mammal species have been known to be infected to date.
- Penguins begin dying of H5N1 in Antarctica while British conservationists report “catastrophic” decline of seabird population.
- H5N1 virus found in cattle herds across six US states, then nine. Virus appears concentrated in milk and to circulate freely between cattle. True scale of bovine outbreak unknown as many producers resist cooperation with federal authorities.
- H5N1 virus show up on grocery store shelves in milk, though pasteurization neutralizes the virus.
- Barn cats drinking raw milk succumb to bird flu deaths.
- Wastewater samples reveal presence of the pathogen in six states: California, Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan and Texas.
- Sales of raw milk contaminated with bird flu pop as some consumers believe it will help them build immunity to the virus.
2025
- $590 million contract awarded to Moderna to speed up development of a bird flu vaccine.
- Retail prices for American eggs almost double over the previous year, as infected hens are culled en masse in the United States. Egg heists and border smugglers are reported.
- The Moderna vaccine contract is cancelled by the Trump administration, citing “ethical concerns” over mRNA technology.
- Robert Kennedy Jr. suggests ending containment strategies and letting bird flu spread wild.
- Chilean scientists sequence H5N1 in Antarctic penguin populations, confirming similarities to strains decimating South American marine mammals.
Footnote:
- Karl Marx quoted in “Marx as a Food Theorist?” Monthly Review, Vol. 68, No.7: monthlyreview.org/2016/12/01/marx-as-a-food-theorist ↩︎